Scientists gathered data on the recent distributions of 130 lizard and snake species found from Mexico to western Canada.
The climate in each species’ current range defined its “climate-niche distribution” or the area where the temperature and precipitation have been suitable for survival and reproduction over the last 30 years or so.
Then, the team looked at where those same climate conditions may occur later in the century based on multiple climate change scenarios.
Overall, future climate-niche distributions are predicted to shift northward and towards higher elevations.
By the end of the century, 68% of the 130 species are predicted to have an expanded climate-niche distribution, potentially resulting in new species arriving across state and international borders if there are no barriers to dispersal.
Idaho and Colorado are the states predicted to have the most species knocking at their door. Both states border vast deserts to the south and have remarkable elevation gradients.
Dede Olson, research ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station says:
“As species migrate northward, they could cross jurisdictional boundaries, such as private lands, state lines, or even international borders. Natural resource agencies might find themselves managing species that were not previously within their regions.”
On the map to the right, areas shaded in yellow have suitable climate for a larger number of reptile species. The maximum number of species is 68 in the recent time period and 69 in the future scenario. Areas in purple are suitable for fewer species.
This United States Geological Survey news article "Climate futures for lizards and snakes" was originally found on https://www.usgs.gov/news
